Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104
Título: | Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding |
Autor(es): | Crispim, José Fernandes, Jorge Rego, Nazaré Glória Gonçalves |
Palavras-chave: | Project management Shipbuilding projects Risk network model Delphi Bayesian network |
Data: | 1-Mai-2020 |
Editora: | Elsevier Science Ltd |
Revista: | Reliability Engineering & System Safety |
Resumo(s): | This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities. |
Tipo: | Artigo |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/81104 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106809 |
ISSN: | 0951-8320 |
Arbitragem científica: | yes |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | EEG - Artigos em revistas de circulação internacional com arbitragem científica |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding_RESS_accepted.pdf | 1,22 MB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |