The collapse of credit booms: a competing risks analysis

Abstract

This paper analyses the collapse of credit booms by using a discrete-time competing risks duration model to disentangle the factors behind the length of benign and harmful credit booms. The results show that economic growth and monetary authorities play the major role in explaining the differences in the length and outcome of credit booms. Moreover, both types of credit expansions display positive duration dependence, i.e. both are more likely to end as they grow older, but hard landing credit booms have proven to be longer than those that land softly.