The potential of region-specific machine-learning-based ground motion models: application to Turkey

Abstract

Conventional ground motion models have extensively been established worldwide based on classical regression analysis of records. Alternatively, advanced nonparametric machine-learning (ML) algorithms may capture the complex nonlinear behaviour of earthquake motions. This paper investigates the efficiency of artificial neural network (ANN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) in predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) (period, T = 0.03–2.0 s) for the Turkish dataset. The dataset involves 1166 records of 383 events with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 4.0–7.6, Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) of 0–200 km, focal depth (FD) less than 35 km, and site condition as the averaged shear wave velocity of the soil on the top 30 m (VS30) of 131–1380 m/s. The performance of the models is compared against empirical models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), Pearson correlation coefficient (r), and inter-event and intra-event residuals. To perform residual analysis, a likelihood function is developed. Findings reveal that the XGBoost approach gives an unbiased model with a higher correlation and lower residual than ANN. Finally, an online platform is provided for any interested users.