Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting: Exploring Input Variables, Time Frames and Multi-Step Approaches

Abstract

Traffic flow forecasting is an acknowledged time series problem whose solutions have been essentially grounded on statistical-based models. Recent times came, however, with promising results regarding the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), such as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), to accurately address time series problems. Literature is, however, evasive in regard to several aspects of the conceived models and often exhibits misconceptions that may lead to important pitfalls. This study aims to conceive and find the best possible LSTM model for traffic flow forecasting while addressing several important aspects of such models such as the multitude of input features, the time frames used by the model and the employed approach for multi-step forecasting. To overcome the spatial problem of open source datasets, this study presents and describes a new dataset collected by the authors of this work. After several weeks of model fitting, Recursive Multi-Step Multi-Variate models were the ones showing better performance, strengthening the perception that LSTMs can be used to accurately forecast the traffic flow for several future timesteps.