Oil palm survival under climate change in Malaysia with future basal stem rot assessments

Abstract

The high economic return from sales of palm oil is because of its inclusion in a vast range of commodities, and Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia. However, increasing cultivation of oil palm has a negative environmental impact threatening sustainability. Basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense is of major concern to sustainability of the palm oil industry. CLIMEX, a computer model, provided suitability-for-future-growth maps of oil palm in Malaysia. The present study used this model to determine how climate affects oil palm growth, providing quantitative scenarios of future oil palm mortality and BSR incidence in Malaysia under a 'no change' presumption. Unsuitable climate for oil palm will make the plant susceptible to disease. High and low levels of oil palm mortality and BSR incidence were predicted from the CLIMEX model in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, respectively, by 2100. Sabah represented the most sustainable region in Malaysia for palm oil production followed by Sarawak. Overall, climate change will not affect the incidence of BSR greatly until 2050 but the situation will deteriorate thereafter. These scenarios can be monitored for accuracy in the future. Methods to ameliorate climate change effects on oil palm and concomitantly reducing BSR incidence are required. Palm oil production may be unsustainable after 2050, and urgent action must be taken.