Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/38016
Título: | The portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence |
Autor(es): | Castro, Vítor |
Palavras-chave: | Business cycles Duration dependence Markov-switching |
Data: | 2015 |
Editora: | Springer |
Revista: | Empirical Economics |
Resumo(s): | This paper tries to identify a chronology for the Portuguese business cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in the respective phases of expansion and contraction. A duration-dependent Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is employed in that task. This model is estimated over year-on-year growth rates of a set of relevant economic indicators, namely industrial production, a composite leading indicator and, additionally, civilian employment. The estimated specifications allow us to identify four main periods of contraction during the last three decades and some evidence of positive duration dependence in contractions, but not in expansions, especially when employment is added to the model. |
Tipo: | Artigo |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/38016 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s00181-014-0860-4 |
ISSN: | 0377-7332 1435-8921 |
Versão da editora: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00181-014-0860-4 |
Arbitragem científica: | yes |
Acesso: | Acesso restrito UMinho |
Aparece nas coleções: | NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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The portuguese business cycle chronology and duration dependence.pdf Acesso restrito! | 6,03 MB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |