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https://hdl.handle.net/1822/12646
Título: | Forecasting spanish elections |
Autor(es): | Magalhães, Pedro C. Conraria, Luís Aguiar Lewis-Beck, Michael S. |
Data: | 2011 |
Editora: | Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) |
Resumo(s): | The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises considerable prediction accuracy of Spanish general election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model, and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the 2012 general election. |
Tipo: | Documento de trabalho |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/12646 |
Versão da editora: | http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2011/NIPE_WP_17_2011.pdf |
Arbitragem científica: | no |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|---|
NIPE_WP_17_2011.pdf | NIPE - WP 17/2011 | 877,77 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |