Collateralizable wealth, asset returns, and systemic risk : international evidence

Abstract

I assess the role of wealth and systemic risk in explaining future asset returns. I show that the residuals of the trend relationship among asset wealth and human wealth predict both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for a set of industrialized countries, I find that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher risk premium for stocks. As for government bond returns: (i) when they are seen as a component of asset wealth, investors react in the same manner; (ii) if, however, investors perceive the increase in government bond returns as signalling a future rise in taxes or a deterioration of public finances, then investors interpret the fall in the wealth-to-income ratio as a fall in future bond premia. Finally, I show that the occurrence of crises episodes (in particular, systemic crises) amplifies the transmission of housing market shocks to financial markets and the banking sector.